Should You Wait for a Recession To Buy or Sell?

With recession rumors once again making the rounds, many in Central Florida are pressing pause on their real estate plans. But is waiting really the best move? According to recent research from John Burns Research and Consulting, 68% of Americans are delaying buying or selling due to economic uncertainty. And while some are worried, others are actually hoping for a recession, anticipating it might lead to lower mortgage rates and falling home prices.

Originally published on July 23rd, 2025. Updated for accuracy.

But if you’re in the Orlando area and hoping to time the market, here’s why waiting for a recession might not play out the way you think.

Why Some Buyers Think a Recession Could Help

A survey by Realtor.com found that nearly 3 in 10 potential buyers would be more likely to make a move during a recession. The logic? Historically, economic slowdowns often lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which can help ease affordability by lowering mortgage rates.

Especially for first-time buyers or those with smaller down payments, that sounds like a golden opportunity.

But There’s a Catch: Home Prices Aren’t Likely To Drop

While lower mortgage rates during a recession are a real possibility, the idea that home prices will tumble is much more of a myth, especially in markets like Orlando.

Many buyers assume a recession will mimic the 2008 housing crash. But that event was an outlier. What made 2008 unique was the combination of subprime lending, overbuilding, and a foreclosure crisis. Today’s market is very different, with a longstanding shortage of inventory and stronger lending standards.

“Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point.”
— Robert Frick, Corporate Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union

In fact, despite higher rates and media buzz, Orlando home values have held steady and are still climbing in many neighborhoods, just at a slower, more sustainable pace.

Timing the Market Could Cost You More

If you’re waiting for prices to fall, you might end up chasing a market that keeps moving ahead. Pair that with rent inflation, lost equity, and the potential for increased buyer competition when rates eventually dip, and the “wait and see” strategy becomes a riskier game.

Bottom Line: Make a Smart Move, Not a Wait-and-See Move

Waiting for a recession may not bring the real estate deal you’re hoping for. While mortgage rates could come down, home prices in Orlando are expected to remain stable or grow, driven by continued demand and limited supply.

Thinking of buying or selling in Orlando?

Let’s talk about what today’s economy really means for you—and craft a strategy that works no matter what the headlines say. Contact Aponte Group today for expert local insight and a plan that helps you move with confidence.